Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080514898
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 573

Book Description
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
ISBN: 9781558604797
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 576

Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems

Author: Richard E. Neapolitan
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781477452547
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 448

Book Description
This text is a reprint of the seminal 1989 book Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert systems: Theory and Algorithms, which helped serve to create the field we now call Bayesian networks. It introduces the properties of Bayesian networks (called causal networks in the text), discusses algorithms for doing inference in Bayesian networks, covers abductive inference, and provides an introduction to decision analysis. Furthermore, it compares rule-base experts systems to ones based on Bayesian networks, and it introduces the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to probability. Finally, it provides a critique of the maximum entropy formalism. Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems was written from the perspective of a mathematician with the emphasis being on the development of theorems and algorithms. Every effort was made to make the material accessible. There are ample examples throughout the text. This text is important reading for anyone interested in both the fundamentals of Bayesian networks and in the history of how they came to be. It also provides an insightful comparison of the two most prominent approaches to probability.

Computational Learning and Probabilistic Reasoning

Author: Alexander Gammerman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 352

Book Description
Providing a unified coverage of the latest research and applications methods and techniques, this book is devoted to two interrelated techniques for solving some important problems in machine intelligence and pattern recognition, namely probabilistic reasoning and computational learning. The contributions in this volume describe and explore the current developments in computer science and theoretical statistics which provide computational probabilistic models for manipulating knowledge found in industrial and business data. These methods are very efficient for handling complex problems in medicine, commerce and finance. Part I covers Generalisation Principles and Learning and describes several new inductive principles and techniques used in computational learning. Part II describes Causation and Model Selection including the graphical probabilistic models that exploit the independence relationships presented in the graphs, and applications of Bayesian networks to multivariate statistical analysis. Part III includes case studies and descriptions of Bayesian Belief Networks and Hybrid Systems. Finally, Part IV on Decision-Making, Optimization and Classification describes some related theoretical work in the field of probabilistic reasoning. Statisticians, IT strategy planners, professionals and researchers with interests in learning, intelligent databases and pattern recognition and data processing for expert systems will find this book to be an invaluable resource. Real-life problems are used to demonstrate the practical and effective implementation of the relevant algorithms and techniques.

Probabilistic Reasoning in Multiagent Systems

Author: Yang Xiang
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139434462
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 310

Book Description
This 2002 book investigates the opportunities in building intelligent decision support systems offered by multi-agent distributed probabilistic reasoning. Probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, also known as Bayesian networks or belief networks, has become increasingly an active field of research and practice in artificial intelligence, operations research and statistics. The success of this technique in modeling intelligent decision support systems under the centralized and single-agent paradigm has been striking. Yang Xiang extends graphical dependence models to the distributed and multi-agent paradigm. He identifies the major technical challenges involved in such an endeavor and presents the results. The framework developed in the book allows distributed representation of uncertain knowledge on a large and complex environment embedded in multiple cooperative agents, and effective, exact and distributed probabilistic inference.

Representing and Reasoning with Probabilistic Knowledge

Author: Fahiem Bacchus
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : MIT Press
ISBN:
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 264

Book Description
Probabilistic information has many uses in an intelligent system. This book explores logical formalisms for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information that will be of particular value to researchers in nonmonotonic reasoning, applications of probabilities, and knowledge representation. It demonstrates that probabilities are not limited to particular applications, like expert systems; they have an important role to play in the formal design and specification of intelligent systems in general. Fahiem Bacchus focuses on two distinct notions of probabilities: one propositional, involving degrees of belief, the other proportional, involving statistics. He constructs distinct logics with different semantics for each type of probability that are a significant advance in the formal tools available for representing and reasoning with probabilities. These logics can represent an extensive variety of qualitative assertions, eliminating requirements for exact point-valued probabilities, and they can represent firstshy;order logical information. The logics also have proof theories which give a formal specification for a class of reasoning that subsumes and integrates most of the probabilistic reasoning schemes so far developed in AI. Using the new logical tools to connect statistical with propositional probability, Bacchus also proposes a system of direct inference in which degrees of belief can be inferred from statistical knowledge and demonstrates how this mechanism can be applied to yield a powerful and intuitively satisfying system of defeasible or default reasoning. Fahiem Bacchus is Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the University of Waterloo, Ontario. Contents: Introduction. Propositional Probabilities. Statistical Probabilities. Combining Statistical and Propositional Probabilities Default Inferences from Statistical Knowledge.

Bayesian Rationality

Author: Mike Oaksford
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198524498
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 342

Book Description
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Systematic Introduction to Expert Systems

Author: Frank Puppe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642779719
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 353

Book Description
At present one of the main obstacles to a broader application of expert systems is the lack of a theory to tell us which problem-solving methods areavailable for a given problem class. Such a theory could lead to significant progress in the following central aims of the expert system technique: - Evaluating the technical feasibility of expert system projects: This depends on whether there is a suitable problem-solving method, and if possible a corresponding tool, for the given problem class. - Simplifying knowledge acquisition and maintenance: The problem-solving methods provide direct assistance as interpretation models in knowledge acquisition. Also, they make possible the development of problem-specific expert system tools with graphical knowledge acquisition components, which can be used even by experts without programming experience. - Making use of expert systems as a knowledge medium: The structured knowledge in expert systems can be used not only for problem solving but also for knowledge communication and tutorial purposes. With such a theory in mind, this book provides a systematic introduction to expert systems. It describes the basic knowledge representations and the present situation with regard tothe identification, realization, and integration of problem-solving methods for the main problem classes of expert systems: classification (diagnostics), construction, and simulation.

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis

Author: Uffe B. Kjærulff
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461451043
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 388

Book Description
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined on the basis of numerous courses that the authors have held for practitioners worldwide.

Knowledge Representation, Reasoning, and the Design of Intelligent Agents

Author: Michael Gelfond
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107782872
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 363

Book Description
Knowledge representation and reasoning is the foundation of artificial intelligence, declarative programming, and the design of knowledge-intensive software systems capable of performing intelligent tasks. Using logical and probabilistic formalisms based on answer set programming (ASP) and action languages, this book shows how knowledge-intensive systems can be given knowledge about the world and how it can be used to solve non-trivial computational problems. The authors maintain a balance between mathematical analysis and practical design of intelligent agents. All the concepts, such as answering queries, planning, diagnostics, and probabilistic reasoning, are illustrated by programs of ASP. The text can be used for AI-related undergraduate and graduate classes and by researchers who would like to learn more about ASP and knowledge representation.