Calculating Catastrophe

Author: G. Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution

Calculating Catastrophe

Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167385
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Warnings

Author: Richard A. Clarke
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 006248804X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294

Book Description
From President Bill Clinton's recommended reading list Publishers Weekly Bestseller Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, the spread of viruses and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters—from cyber attacks to pandemics—but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right? Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, malware attacks, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.

Catastrophe Time!

Author: Gary Zhexi Zhang
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 1913689670
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 281

Book Description
A collection of essays, fictions, and interviews exploring the weird temporalities of finance and catastrophe. Once, financial practitioners plied a hybrid trade as hydrologists, star-gazers, and weather-watchers who sought to discover the natural laws of value and exchange as they did the divine order of an unchanging nature. Today, corporate firms hire trend forecasters and scenario planners to play out strategic fictions in virtual worlds. Hurricane insurance markets simulate a turbulent climate to offer investment instruments to hedge against the risks of the stock market. And for financial astrologers operating in the city of London, celestial motions provide a cosmic map that orients the mood of terrestrial markets. Bringing together artists, researchers, and interstitial practitioners, Catastrophe Time! pays attention to the conditions of speculative knowledge on an increasingly volatile planet. Traversing a gray zone between rigorous research and operative science fictions, its contributors question how practices of speculation may transform, undermine, and at times exceed, the worlds they set out to model. Edited by artist Gary Zhexi Zhang, Catastrophe Time! explores the power of temporal technologies—whether currencies, conspiracies, or simulation models—to shape reality through fiction. By bringing together researchers and writers working at the boundaries of temporal practices, including Diann Bauer, Philip Grant, Bahar Noorizadeh, Habib William Kherbek, Klara Kofen, Kei Kreutler, Suhail Malik, Bassem Saad and Gordon Woo, this urgent volume seeks to make sense of the unraveling times in which we live.

The Cure for Catastrophe

Author: Robert Muir-Wood
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0465096476
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 370

Book Description
We can't stop natural disasters but we can stop them being disastrous. One of the world's foremost risk experts tells us how. Year after year, floods wreck people's homes and livelihoods, earthquakes tear communities apart, and tornadoes uproot whole towns. Natural disasters cause destruction and despair. But does it have to be this way? In The Cure for Catastrophe, global risk expert Robert Muir-Wood argues that our natural disasters are in fact human ones: We build in the wrong places and in the wrong way, putting brick buildings in earthquake country, timber ones in fire zones, and coastal cities in the paths of hurricanes. We then blindly trust our flood walls and disaster preparations, and when they fail, catastrophes become even more deadly. No society is immune to the twin dangers of complacency and heedless development. Recognizing how disasters are manufactured gives us the power to act. From the Great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 to Hurricane Katrina, The Cure for Catastrophe recounts the ingenious ways in which people have fought back against disaster. Muir-Wood shows the power and promise of new predictive technologies, and envisions a future where information and action come together to end the pain and destruction wrought by natural catastrophes. The decisions we make now can save millions of lives in the future. Buzzing with political plots, newfound technologies, and stories of surprising resilience, The Cure for Catastrophe will revolutionize the way we conceive of catastrophes: though natural disasters are inevitable, the death and destruction are optional. As we brace ourselves for deadlier cataclysms, the cure for catastrophe is in our hands.

The Impacts of Natural Disasters

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309063949
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 80

Book Description
We in the United States have almost come to accept natural disasters as part of our nation's social fabric. News of property damage, economic and social disruption, and injuries follow earthquakes, fires, floods and hurricanes. Surprisingly, however, the total losses that follow these natural disasters are not consistently calculated. We have no formal system in either the public or private sector for compiling this information. The National Academies recommends what types of data should be assembled and tracked.

Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling

Author: Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118906047
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 550

Book Description
This book covers both the practical and theoretical aspects of catastrophe modelling for insurance industry practitioners and public policymakers. Written by authors with both academic and industry experience it also functions as an excellent graduate-level text and overview of the field. Ours is a time of unprecedented levels of risk from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Fortunately, it is also an era of relatively inexpensive technologies for use in assessing those risks. The demand from both commercial and public interests—including (re)insurers, NGOs, global disaster management agencies, and local authorities—for sophisticated catastrophe risk assessment tools has never been greater, and contemporary catastrophe modelling satisfies that demand. Combining the latest research with detailed coverage of state-of-the-art catastrophe modelling techniques and technologies, this book delivers the knowledge needed to use, interpret, and build catastrophe models, and provides greater insight into catastrophe modelling’s enormous potential and possible limitations. The first book containing the detailed, practical knowledge needed to support practitioners as effective catastrophe risk modellers and managers Includes hazard, vulnerability and financial material to provide the only independent, comprehensive overview of the subject, accessible to students and practitioners alike Demonstrates the relevance of catastrophe models within a practical, decision-making framework and illustrates their many applications Includes contributions from many of the top names in the field, globally, from industry, academia, and government Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner’s Guide is an important working resource for catastrophe modelling analysts and developers, actuaries, underwriters, and those working in compliance or regulatory functions related to catastrophe risk. It is also valuable for scientists and engineers seeking to gain greater insight into catastrophe risk management and its applications.

Catastrophe

Author: Richard A. Posner
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195346394
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 333

Book Description
Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Facing Catastrophe

Author: Robert R. M. Verchick
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674047915
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 335

Book Description
The author argues for a new perspective on disaster law that is based on the principles of environmental protection. His prescription boils down to three simple commands: Go green, be fair, and keep safe. He argues that government must assume a stronger regulatory role in managing natural infrastructure, distributional fairness, and public risk.--[book cover].

Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management 2015

Author: Ershi Qi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9462391777
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 864

Book Description
Being the premier forum for the presentation of new advances and research results in the fields of Industrial Engineering, IEEM 2015 aims to provide a high-level international forum for experts, scholars and entrepreneurs at home and abroad to present the recent advances, new techniques and applications face and face, to promote discussion and interaction among academics, researchers and professionals to promote the developments and applications of the related theories and technologies in universities and enterprises, and to establish business or research relations to find global partners for future collaboration in the field of Industrial Engineering. All the goals of the international conference are to fulfill the mission of the series conference which is to review, exchange, summarize and promote the latest achievements in the field of industrial engineering and engineering management over the past year, and to propose prospects and vision for the further development. This volume is the second of the two proceedings volumes from this conference.