Econometric Modelling with Time Series

Author: Vance Martin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521139813
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 925

Book Description
"Maximum likelihood estimation is a general method for estimating the parameters of econometric models from observed data. The principle of maximum likelihood plays a central role in the exposition of this book, since a number of estimators used in econometrics can be derived within this framework. Examples include ordinary least squares, generalized least squares and full-information maximum likelihood. In deriving the maximum likelihood estimator, a key concept is the joint probability density function (pdf) of the observed random variables, yt. Maximum likelihood estimation requires that the following conditions are satisfied. (1) The form of the joint pdf of yt is known. (2) The specification of the moments of the joint pdf are known. (3) The joint pdf can be evaluated for all values of the parameters, 9. Parts ONE and TWO of this book deal with models in which all these conditions are satisfied. Part THREE investigates models in which these conditions are not satisfied and considers four important cases. First, if the distribution of yt is misspecified, resulting in both conditions 1 and 2 being violated, estimation is by quasi-maximum likelihood (Chapter 9). Second, if condition 1 is not satisfied, a generalized method of moments estimator (Chapter 10) is required. Third, if condition 2 is not satisfied, estimation relies on nonparametric methods (Chapter 11). Fourth, if condition 3 is violated, simulation-based estimation methods are used (Chapter 12). 1.2 Motivating Examples To highlight the role of probability distributions in maximum likelihood estimation, this section emphasizes the link between observed sample data and 4 The Maximum Likelihood Principle the probability distribution from which they are drawn"-- publisher.

The Econometric Analysis of Time Series

Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780860031925
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 387

Book Description
Coverage has been extended to include recent topics. The book again presents a unified treatment of economic theory, with the method of maximum likelihood playing a key role in both estimation and testing. Exercises are included and the book is suitable as a general text for final-year undergraduate and postgraduate students.

The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series

Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521883818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 468

Book Description
Terence Mills' best-selling graduate textbook provides detailed coverage of research techniques and findings relating to the empirical analysis of financial markets. In its previous editions it has become required reading for many graduate courses on the econometrics of financial modelling. This third edition, co-authored with Raphael Markellos, contains a wealth of material reflecting the developments of the last decade. Particular attention is paid to the wide range of nonlinear models that are used to analyse financial data observed at high frequencies and to the long memory characteristics found in financial time series. The central material on unit root processes and the modelling of trends and structural breaks has been substantially expanded into a chapter of its own. There is also an extended discussion of the treatment of volatility, accompanied by a new chapter on nonlinearity and its testing.

The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521565882
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258

Book Description
Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.

Analysis of Economic Time Series

Author: Marc Nerlove
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483218880
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 495

Book Description
Analysis of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis integrates several topics in economic time-series analysis, including the formulation and estimation of distributed-lag models of dynamic economic behavior; the application of spectral analysis in the study of the behavior of economic time series; and unobserved-components models for economic time series and the closely related problem of seasonal adjustment. Comprised of 14 chapters, this volume begins with a historical background on the use of unobserved components in the analysis of economic time series, followed by an Introduction to the theory of stationary time series. Subsequent chapters focus on the spectral representation and its estimation; formulation of distributed-lag models; elements of the theory of prediction and extraction; and formulation of unobserved-components models and canonical forms. Seasonal adjustment techniques and multivariate mixed moving-average autoregressive time-series models are also considered. Finally, a time-series model of the U.S. cattle industry is presented. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians, economists, and those interested in economic theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics.

Time Series Models

Author: D.R. Cox
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000152944
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 243

Book Description
The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

Applied Time Series Econometrics

Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139454730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 351

Book Description
Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.

Econometric Modeling

Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400845653
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 378

Book Description
Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.

Forecasting Economic Time Series

Author: C. W. J. Granger
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483273245
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 353

Book Description
Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Modelling Financial Time Series

Author: Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812770852
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 297

Book Description
This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.