Quantitative Intelligence Analysis

Author: Edward Waltz
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 144223587X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 309

Book Description
Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Intelligence Analysis

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309210925
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 352

Book Description
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN: 1839743050
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 336

Book Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Hank Prunckun
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442224339
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 385

Book Description
Since 9/11, the needs of intelligence agencies as well as the missions they conduct have increased in number, size, and complexity. As such, government and private security agencies are recruiting staff to analyze the vast amount of data collected in these missions. This textbook offers a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. It acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research, but also the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment as well as obtain data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry. This revised edition of the popular text has been expanded and updated significantly.

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 148331202X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 385

Book Description
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Quantitative Approaches To Political Intelligence

Author: Richards Heuer
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000308839
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 123

Book Description
Bridging the gap between the scientific approach to international relations and the intuitive analysis of the government foreign affairs specialist, this book reports on a concerted effort by the CIA to apply modern social science methods to problems confronted by political intelligence analysts. The unique experience gained through this CIA progra

An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

Author: Jerome Clauser
Publisher: Scarecrow Press
ISBN: 9780810861817
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 240

Book Description
Since the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, the intelligence community has been scrutinized. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission recommended how to improve the quality of intelligence analysis. Those recommendations and the United States' involvement in the war in Iraq have spawned additional charges of the politicization of intelligence. In turn, the intelligence community has reconfigured itself with newly created departments supported by an expanded and inexperienced workforce that was not envisioned when intelligence agencies were formally established in 1947.

Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis

Author: Hank Prunckun
Publisher: Scarecrow Press
ISBN: 0810871912
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 249

Book Description
With the exponential growth in the intelligence field in the last few years, the profession has grown much larger and its mission more complex. Government and private sector security agencies have recruited intelligence analysts to process what has become a voluminous amount of raw information flowing into these agencies' data collection systems. Unfortunately, there is an unmet need for analysts who are able to process these data. For this reason there are a growing number of colleges and universities that offer intelligence training so that candidates for analyst positions can take-up their duties without protracted on-the-job instruction. Handbook of Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Analysis offers students in such courses a way of gaining the analytic skills essential to undertake intelligence work. This book acquaints students and analysts with how intelligence fits into the larger research framework. It covers not only the essentials of applied research but also explains the function, structure, and operational methods specifically involved in intelligence work. It looks at how analysts work with classified information in a security conscious environment, as well as obtaining data via covert methods. Students are left with little doubt about what intelligence is and how it is developed using scientific methods of inquiry.

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116

Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Improving Intelligence Analysis

Author: Stephen Marrin
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136680470
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193

Book Description
This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.